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By Lubna Sunawar,
Ph.D. Candidate in Peace and Conflict Studies at the National Defence University in Islamabad
Visiting SPLIT Fellow at the American Graduate School in Paris
Posted on July 9th, 2013
For the first time in 66 years of Pakistan’s independence, a civilian government led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), has completed a full fixed five-year term in office without facing any military intervention or other type of interruption. In a country where military forces has a history of getting involved through coups or influencing presidents to dissolve parliaments, the PPP made no effort to extend its mandate extra legally.
Today Pakistan is known as a country which has become a hub of Islamic militants. This factor has badly hit Pakistan’s social and economic life from every perspective. The world has a vital stake in who wins these elections and how they proceed to govern. What should we expect from newly elected government in Pakistan?
Pakistan’s historic election of May 11, 2013 could have immense consequences for Pakistan in general and the U.S. in particular. Pakistan’s status as a U.S. major non-NATO ally in the region, and the country’s strategic importance for Western powers particularly for the U.S. has enhanced immensely following Obama administration’s announcement for the subsequent U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of 2014. In this given context, elections in Pakistan and the domestic policies of the next elected Pakistani government and its foreign policy agenda are being closely watched by Obama administration hoping to further its own interests in the region.
2013 will surely be a very exciting year in terms of Pakistan’s politics accompanying transitions and likely changes. The timing of the elections seems favourable as it also creates the possibility that the incoming federal government will have the opportunity of better working relationships with the other power centres in Pakistan's state. President Zardari will reach the end of his term in September as President of Pakistan. Mr. Asif Ali Zardari is the 11th President of Pakistan. He is co-chairman of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the widower of Benazir Bhutto, who served two nonconsecutive terms as Prime Minister in 1990s. A Sindhi from a landowning tribe of Baloch origin, Mr. Zardari rose to eminence after his marriage to Benazir Bhutto in 1987. Between 1993 and 1996, he held various cabinet positions in the second Bhutto administration. He was arrested on charges of corruption in late 1996, following the collapse of the Bhutto government. He was released from jail in 2004. He went into self-exile in Dubai, but returned in December 2007 after Bhutto's assassination. He led his party to victory in the 2008 general elections. He spearheaded a coalition that forced General Musharraf (ex Chief of Army Staff and then President) to resign and was elected President on 6 September 2008.
Pakistan people Party (PPP) led by him has received a huge setback at the polls which was quite expected before the elections. His successor will probably be appointed by the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Nawaz group), which is the winning party. In November, the Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kyani is going to leave the office who has somewhat managed smooth working relationship with PPP throughout his term in office but has shaky relations with judiciary. Furthermore, in December another major power player in Pakistani politics and in government — the Supreme Court Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry — is also set to retire. So all in all, we could see an entirely different cast of political, military and judicial characters in charge in Islamabad by the end of this year.
Pakistan has elected a new parliament under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif. Mr. Sharif rose to prominence as part of General Zia-ul-Haq's military regime in the 1980s He was appointed Chief Minister of Punjab by Zia in 1985. After Zia's death and Benazir Bhutto's being elected Prime Minister in 1988, Sharif emerged as opposition leader from the conservative Pakistan Muslim League. When Benazir was dismissed by then President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1990 on corruption charges, Sharif was elected Prime Minister the same year. But relations between Sharif and Ghulam Ishaq too deteriorated, with Ghulam Ishaq tried to dismiss Sharif on similar charges. Sharif successfully challenged the President's decision in the Supreme Court, but both men were ultimately persuaded to step down in 1993 by then army chief Abdul Waheed Kakar who believed that strained relations between President and Prime Minister would give way to political anarchy.
Election results show that the Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Sharif secured a majority in National Assembly. It was a remarkable comeback for the two-time prime minister in Pakistani politics, who was toppled in a 1999 coup led by the then-army chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf and was sent into self exile in Saudi Arabia for 7 years. (PML-N) is going to form government in the centre but for sure it would be a fragmented parliament without a clear majority most likely comprises of religious parties as coalition. Nawaz Sharif may not have won enough seats in parliament to rule on his own which could have given him upper hand but he has built up enough momentum to avoid having to form a coalition with his main rivals, former cricketer Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which came second in poll put up a strong fight and he is likely to remain a potent force in politics for years to come. That's a significant gain for Khan’s party that had only ever won one national assembly seat in 2008 general elections; followed by the former ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP). There is a general perception which generates fear that the need to form a viable coalition might lead to weak government which would make it unable to take foreign policy decisions independently.
There are a number of challenges that the outgoing government has left for the next elected dispensation to tackle.
The newly elected government of Pakistan will face a host of economic problems at home as well as external challenges to tackle. Pakistanis suffer through power outages that can last 18 hours a day and extensive gas outages in the winter. This has seriously hurt the economy and industry sector pushing growth below 4% a year which resulted in inflation that has risen sharply in last five years, and foreign investment dropped. Pakistan is regarded as a failed state because of its poor economic performance, political instability and ongoing violence in the country. The last parliament’s performance was poor by all measures. PPP-led collation government wasted a golden opportunity to turn around Pakistan’s fate as a prosperous country in South Asia. It had a lot of support when it came into power in early 2008, but has completely lost it now and the recent election results have proved it. Pakistan is going through a systematic collapse of state institutions one after the other which has emanated from bad governance. There is no deny in saying, public expectations were dashed in so many ways. Pakistan’s economy is in a state of crisis; corruption, lack of discipline and bad management are other factors which has brought Pakistan to a standstill position. Meanwhile, the national debt has doubled many times thus paying extra burden on a common man. Hardly any politicians pay their fair share of taxes in Pakistan, a custom which has set a bad precedent. Foreign direct investment has never been as low in the history of Pakistan as it has been in last five years. Unfortunately, Pakistan has been ruled by a callous and incompetent elite which has often favored their own self vested preferences over national interests.
Nawaz Sharif, an advocate of free-market economy, is likely to pursue a policy of privatization and deregulation to revive flagging growth. He has said Pakistan should stand on its own feet but in order to revive the economy, it is highly possible that the country will go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in August for another bailout to avoid a balance of payments crisis.
The Pakistani military has the reputation for political engineering and manifestation. It usually operates behind the scenes; it has been known to make and unmake majorities and governments and to maintain its primacy and impose its will. Most national and international analysts see the army of Pakistan as the real decision-maker in matters of foreign policy and defense, even when a civilian government is in office. Nawaz Sharif has asserted Pakistan army which has ruled the country for more than half of its tumultuous history, should stay out of politics. However, he will have to work with Pakistan's generals in close collaboration. It is military in Pakistan who sets foreign and security policy and manages the nuclear-armed difficult relationship with the United State. It is generally assumed in army ranks that senior generals are thought to be quite uncomfortable with Mr. Nawaz Sharif come back, whom they see as an untrustworthy figure, and indeed would have preferred the former cricketer Mr. Imran Khan (PTI), whose statements on foreign policy often inline to those of the military. Keeping this in mind, Mr. Nawaz Sharif has been quietly bridging up the gaps with the military in recent weeks.
Recent Political History
If we go back to 1990s, enormous pressure from the military forced Nawaz Sharif to resign from his first term as prime minister in 1993. He became highly unpopular in army after Kargil crisis. His second term ended in 1999 when he was ousted in a military coup led by the General Musharraf. When he becomes prime minister for the third time, he will likely try to reduce the military's influence though seems quite impossible.
Under the new democratic set up, which faces daunting economic and political challenges at home, foreign policy pertaining to neighboring countries in general and U.S. in particular is likely to be both interesting and significant in the near future. Bilateral ties are likely to improve with India, Afghanistan and Iran while Nawaz government will try to strengthen its friendship with the Gulf States. It looks like the revival of Pakistan’s economy will be the top most priority for Nawaz Sharif.
When it comes to foreign policy issues, while all the political parties in Pakistan generally agree on the importance of Pakistan-China relations; China has been an all-weather friend of Pakistan. China has always maintained close military relations with Pakistan but it has not favored any particular faction during the election which is commendable. China, as a growing economic giant and an old ally of Pakistan, will remain at the top of Pakistan's list of foreign policy. It has invested billions of dollars in the past few years in some very important sectors of Pakistan's economy such as telecom and infrastructure building. It has also been the vital key partner in the development of the Gawadar Port in the south-west Pakistan which is a very valuable investment for China from every perspective as it will provide a gateway to the Gulf region for the export of its products as well as import of oil and gas.
Nawaz Sharif has a track record of trying to improve ties with Pakistan's arch rival neighboring India by reducing the need for defence spending. He has already made it clear that he will take up India-Pakistan relations from where he had left them when he was ousted from power in 1999. After conducting nuclear tests in response to India's atomic blasts in 1998, Sharif had worked with his then Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee to improve bilateral relations on both sides of the border. After getting victory in recent elections he was talking to the media, Mr. Sharif said he worked hard for a detente with New Delhi before Musharraf deposed him. 'We'll pick the threads where we left. We want to move toward better relations with India, to resolve the remaining issues through peaceful means, including that of Kashmir.’
It is unclear so far what Mr. Sharif's policy will be toward neighboring Afghanistan, where the U.S. plans to withdraw most of its combat troops by end of 2014 and is surely seeking help from Pakistan to negotiate peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan and Afghanistan have long tense relations. There is a great hope that newly elected government will also improve relations with Afghanistan and would go to any extent to solve the issues of militancy through dialogue. It is hoped that (PML-N) would support the reconciliation process between the Taliban and Karzai government.
The U.S. and Pakistan have also had a troubled relationship, especially after 2011, accompanied by three major developments: Raymond Davis murder case, American raid operated by U.S. Special Forces in Abottabad in Garrison town of Pakistan army that killed Osama bin Laden, and NATO firing on Pakistani troops at Salala by the end of year.
Sharif is expected to be somewhat more nationalistic and protective of state sovereignty unlike his predecessors who were ever ready to compromise on Pakistan’s sovereignty. He firmly faced U.S. opposition to Pakistan's nuclear test in 1998 and has always criticized unpopular American drone attacks in North-West region of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif has clearly warned he will stop Pakistan’s involvement in the war on terror, which he considers to jeopardize Pakistan’s internal security. He has been critical of Pakistan People Party (PPP) policy of not stopping the U.S. from conducting operations against terrorists on its territory. This is only fueling and encouraging more radicalism in Pakistan and elsewhere in the region. This is where military would step in which plays a dominant role in foreign policy issues and would definitely not let Mr. Sharif to annoy the U.S and to lose hundreds of millions of dollars as military aid. In addition to this, Washington will also play a deciding role in any bailout package that Pakistan will almost certainly need from the International Monetary Fund to rejuvenate its ailing economy.
Pakistan's ties with the neighboring Iran considerably improved since the fall of Taliban in Afghanistan. There is great hope that the economic and diplomatic ties between Iran and Pakistan are likely to thrive in the near future under Nawaz Sharif government. One of the key reasons is the proposed gas pipeline that is to reach India through Pakistan from southern Iran (also known as the IPI - Iran, Pakistan & India pipeline or Peace Pipeline). This project has been delayed due to Iran's growing economic isolation and U.S. continuous pressure on Pakistan to abandon gas pipeline project with Iran. Pakistan has always resisted this pressure by the U.S. and recently signed this gas pipeline project with Iran to make it a real happening. The project is quite likely to materialize in the near future. This project would help Pakistan to overcome its ongoing energy crisis.
In sum, it is hoped that newly elected government of Nawaz Sharif would make every effort to revive ailing economy of Pakistan by maintaining good relations with all countries of the world in general and with the U.S. in particular. Pakistan has been fighting war on two fronts simultaneously: as an ally of the U.S to root out al-Qaida and facing ongoing militant violence within country. Some good and bold decisions are expected pertaining to foreign policy from a newly elected parliament which is headed by Nawaz Sharif and hopefully Pakistan’s national interests and sovereignty would be protected under his government by keeping Pakistan in first place at national and international level.
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